San Diego Home Prices Hit $1M: Why 2026 Sellers Can't Wait
By Ami Markowitz | Compass | DRE #01969276
A Number That Changes the Conversation
Somewhere in the last year, San Diego crossed a line that a lot of sellers have been watching for without quite believing it would happen. The county's median single family home price moved past $1 million, and it's stayed there through most of 2026, even as the market has cooled from the frenzy of a few years ago.
I bring this up not because a round number is magic, but because of what it signals. It tells you San Diego's housing market has absorbed higher rates, tighter affordability, and a slower pace of sales, and home values held up anyway. For sellers who've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better moment, that resilience is worth paying attention to. It's also part of why I keep having the same conversation with clients this year: the case for waiting is weaker than it looks on paper.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
San Diego County's median home price has been hovering in the low $1 million range for most of 2026, with some month to month swings that make headlines but don't change the bigger picture. County wide, inventory sat around a 3.0 month supply as of early summer, and for detached single family homes specifically, that number was tighter, closer to 2.4 months. Anything under about five to six months of supply is generally considered a market that favors sellers, so even with more inventory than a year or two ago, San Diego hasn't tipped into buyer's market territory.
Homes are also selling close to what sellers are asking. The sale to list price ratio has been running nearly 100 percent, meaning well priced homes aren't seeing the kind of steep negotiating that headlines about a "cooling market" might suggest. What has changed most isn't home prices, it's the pace of the market. Homes are generally taking a little longer to sell than they did during the frenzied conditions of 2021 and 2022, giving buyers more time to evaluate properties and negotiate when appropriate. That doesn't mean homes are sitting on the market for months. Well priced, well presented homes in desirable neighborhoods are still attracting strong interest and often move quickly. The biggest difference today is that buyers have become more selective, making accurate pricing and thoughtful preparation more important than ever.
Why "Wait and See" Is Costing More Than It's Saving
This is the part of the conversation I have most often with sellers who are on the fence. The logic behind waiting usually sounds something like this: if I hold on to my home for another year, it'll be worth more, so why not wait and capture that gain.
The math doesn't hold up as well as it used to. Most forecasts call for modest price appreciation over the next year, although expectations vary by property type, neighborhood, and economic conditions with coastal and top school neighborhoods likely to outperform, and higher HOA condo product likely to lag behind.
For many homeowners, annual carrying costs can easily exceed the additional appreciation they hope to capture. Run those two numbers side by side and waiting a year to "catch" a few percentage points of appreciation frequently costs more than it earns. That's before accounting for the very real possibility that rates or buyer demand shift in a direction nobody predicted, which they've done more than once in the last few years.
I'm not telling every seller to list tomorrow. Personal timing, whether you're moving for a job, downsizing, or buying your next home, matters more than trying to perfectly time the market ever will. But if the only reason you're waiting is a belief that next year will clearly be better, I'd encourage you to actually run your own numbers before assuming that's true.
Mortgage Rates: The Wildcard Everyone's Watching
Rates have been sitting in the mid 6 percent range for much of 2026, generally between 6.0 and 6.8 percent on a 30 year fixed, and several forecasters expect a gradual drift down toward the high 5 percent range by the end of the year. That matters for sellers in two ways.
First, lower rates later in the year could bring more buyers off the sidelines, which sounds like good news for sellers, and it is, but it also means more competition among sellers for that renewed demand. A home that's well positioned now, before that demand fully arrives, may have an easier path to a strong offer than one competing in a more crowded fall market.
Second, and this surprises some sellers, rate drops don't automatically translate into significantly higher prices. Affordability is complicated, and even a meaningful rate improvement tends to get absorbed partly into buying power and partly into price, not converted one for one into home value gains. I wouldn't bank a selling strategy on a specific rate prediction, mine included. Rates have defied consensus forecasts repeatedly over the past several years.
Not All Property Types Are Telling the Same Story
One thing I want every seller to understand clearly: the "San Diego market" isn't one market, and the data proves it. Detached single family homes have held close to their 2022 peak values and, in strong school districts and coastal neighborhoods, have continued to see real demand and price support. Condos and townhomes have told a different story. Some condo and townhome segments have experienced more price pressure than detached homes, due in part to higher HOA costs, rising insurance premiums, and increased competition with a wave of new construction in certain submarkets competing for the same buyer pool.
If you own a detached single family home, the case for not waiting is even stronger, since you're less likely to be sitting on a property that's actively losing ground while you deliberate. If you own a condo or townhome, the case for not waiting is arguably stronger still, since a softening segment is one where getting ahead of further declines matters more, not less.
What This Means If You're Selling
Pricing has to reflect where the market actually is right now, not where it was in 2022, and not where you hope it'll be next year. The "list high and see what happens" approach that sometimes worked during the frenzy years is now more likely to leave a home sitting, accumulating days on market that make buyers wonder what's wrong with it, and eventually forcing a price cut that nets less than accurate pricing would have from the start.
Presentation matters more in a market where buyers have more to choose from and more time to compare. Homes that show well, address deferred maintenance up front, and come with clean disclosures tend to sell faster and closer to asking than homes that ask buyers to look past obvious issues.
Get your comparable sales pulled for your specific property type and neighborhood, not a county wide average. A single family home in a strong school zone and a condo in a building with rising HOA dues are experiencing genuinely different markets right now, and your pricing strategy should reflect that difference specifically, not a headline number.
What This Means If You're Buying
None of this means buyers are without leverage. Longer days on market and softer competition than the peak years mean there's more room to negotiate on price, request repairs, or ask for closing cost credits than there was two or three years ago, particularly on homes that have sat for a few weeks. If rates do drift down later in the year, buyers who lock in a purchase now may also have a real shot at refinancing into a better rate down the line, a strategy sometimes called "marry the house, date the rate."
Where I'd caution buyers is on well priced, well presented homes in strong locations. Those are still moving quickly and, in some cases, still drawing multiple offers, because true "A" quality inventory remains limited even in a more balanced overall market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are San Diego home prices actually going to keep rising in 2026?
Most current forecasts point to modest appreciation, generally in the 2 to 4 percent range county wide, with meaningful variation by property type and neighborhood rather than a single uniform trend.
Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?
By most standard measures, San Diego still favors sellers overall, with inventory under the five to six month threshold typically associated with balanced markets, though the market has cooled meaningfully from 2022 and 2023 conditions.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before I sell?
Rates affect buyer demand, but they're not something a seller controls or can reliably time. In many cases, the carrying costs of waiting outweigh the potential benefit of selling into a slightly lower rate environment, especially if that environment brings more competing listings along with it.
Why are condos underperforming single family homes right now?
Rising HOA dues, higher insurance costs, and in some submarkets increased new construction supply have put more pressure on condo and townhome values than on detached single family homes, which have generally held closer to their prior peak.
How do I know if my specific home should sell now or wait?
It depends on your property type, neighborhood, personal timeline, and what you're carrying in costs each month you hold on to it. I'd run the actual numbers for your specific situation rather than relying on general market commentary, including mine.
The Bottom Line
Crossing the $1 million median isn't a reason to panic or to assume prices only go up from here. It's a signal that San Diego's housing market has held its value through a genuinely difficult affordability stretch, and that the sellers waiting for a dramatically better moment may be waiting for something that, on the numbers, is unlikely to arrive in a way that outweighs what it costs to wait. If you're weighing whether this year makes sense for your sale, I'd rather walk through your specific numbers with you than have you rely on a market average that may not reflect your property or your situation.
If you'd like to talk through what your home might be worth right now, what carrying costs look like for your specific situation, or how your property type is performing compared to the county wide averages you're reading about, I'm happy to have that conversation. No pressure, just real numbers so you can make the call yourself.
Ami Markowitz
Compass | DRE #01969276
Email: [email protected]
Cell: 619-739-0405
Website: amimarkowitz.com
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About Ami Markowitz
Ami Markowitz is a Realtor with Compass who has spent 11 years working with buyers and sellers across San Diego's North County, including Carmel Valley, Del Mar, Encinitas, Solana Beach, Carlsbad, La Jolla, Rancho Peñasquitos, Rancho Bernardo, Scripps Ranch, Poway, and Rancho Santa Fe. His background includes short sale and foreclosure transactions, luxury properties, and first-time homebuyer guidance, and he works with both buyers and sellers as a listing agent and negotiator. Ami can be reached at [email protected] or 619-739-0405, and additional North County neighborhood guides are available at amimarkowitz.com.
